🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Profited $436,000 on Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual earned a substantial sum on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the event. Sudden Shift in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the time leading up to former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been seized. A particular user, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436K from a modest bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Trading information shows that users put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. However the odds had jumped to over 10% by the end of the day and surged in the first hours of January 3rd, indicating a sudden change in betting activity immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other individuals also made tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Politicians are growing concerned. A new rule put forward on the start of the week would prevent government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in recent years, with traders able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics. The industry were examined under the last presidential term. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate. Trading on insider information is illegal in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting space. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."